Crises and the Concert of Europe

The great powers do not only fight the wars they choose. Sometimes the system itself produces one. This is the machinery that turns accumulated geopolitical pressure into a specific confrontation at a specific place.

It runs monthly, and it is fully deterministic.

World tension#

The world carries a tension score from 0 to 100, accumulated from observable causes:

• Great-power wars in progress
• Powers carrying high infamy
• Rivalries between great powers
• Contested spheres of influence

Tension is visible and its contributions are itemised, so you can see what is driving it. It also decays on its own — tension is a state of the world, not a ratchet.

Flashpoints#

Above a tension floor of 35, the world can spawn a crisis at a concrete flashpoint. There is only ever one active crisis at a time.

A crisis has a shape: two great powers lead it, one pressing a demand and one resisting it, over a subject nation. The other great powers then pick sides, joining a bloc when their interest score clears a threshold of 45.

How a crisis ends#

There are three outcomes, and which one you get is a function of the relative power of the two blocs.

Congress. If one bloc is clearly stronger — a power ratio of 1.45 or more — the weaker lead backs down and the demand is settled peacefully. Prestige swings to the winner and spheres are redrawn. Nobody fights.

War. If the blocs are balanced, neither side backs down and the crisis goes over the brink into a bloc-versus-bloc war, fought with the ordinary war machinery.

Fizzle. The flashpoint can simply collapse — a lead dies, or loses great power rank, and the confrontation evaporates.

AI great powers back down at a ratio of 0.62, which is a lower bar than the congress threshold. They will fold before the situation is formally hopeless.

What this means in play#

• Balanced blocs are how the world gets a general war. A clearly dominant coalition produces a congress; two evenly matched ones produce a war. If you want to avoid the war, make one side obviously stronger.
• Tension is a shared resource you all spend. Your infamy and your rivalries raise the temperature for everyone, and the crisis that results may not be one you would have chosen.
• Joining a bloc is a decision with a threshold. Support arrives when other powers' interests clear the bar, not because you asked.
• Watch the tension breakdown. It is itemised, so you can see a crisis building and act on the causes — settle a rivalry, reduce your infamy, end a war — before the flashpoint spawns.
• Congresses redraw spheres. Losing one costs prestige and influence without a shot being fired.

See also#

• Diplomacy — rivalries, spheres, infamy and great-power rank
• War — what a crisis war actually looks like once it starts
• AI nations — how the other powers decide to press, resist or join